Does campaigning work?

1. What was the overall general finding of Broockman and Kalla’s analysis of campaign activities?

In general elections, campaigns’ attempts to win swing voters appear to not work at all.

2. What two time frames did Broockman and Kalla analyze in their study?

The 2015 and 2016 elections

3. At what rate did they find that people were actually persuaded with campaign activities close to the election?

11%

4. How were the results different in the study between activities months before the election, and those that occur close to the election day?

Kalla and Broockman found that, if the campaign actions such as canvassing, and phone calls happen within two months of election day, the average effect on voter preferences was effectively zero. About one in 800 people reached were persuaded, they estimate. By contrast, when the campaign action happens well before election day, and the effects are measured quickly thereafter, there's a real impact on opinions, but it disappears before election day.

5. What types of voting are campaign activities most likely to impact voter outcomes?

Primary elections and ballot initiatives are most likely to impact voter outcomes

6. What type of effect did they find that canvassing can have?

Canvassing could do anything from hurt candidates by 5.3 points to help them by 1.5 points.

7. What potential lessons could their experiments have for political campaigns in the future?

One takeaway is that campaigns and non-campaign groups like Working America could do well to focus more of their energy on boosting turnout at the end of a race than persuading voters earlier on. Another is that campaign funders should consider directing more money to primary election and ballot initiatives, where persuasion does appear possible.

8. Describe the two statewide cases where canvassing did have an effect on voter decisions.

In the 2008 US Senate race in Oregon, Gordon Smith, a moderate republican, who abnormally supported the LGBT-Q movement, was mistaken to also support pro-abortion laws. Planned Parenthood and Pro-choice Oregon groups then set out to educate people on his actual views, and the pro-choice views of his opponent. This is one case where canvassing worked, because the votes then moved into his opponent’s favor.

A more intriguing case of persuasion working occurred in North Carolina. Working America, in the effort being studied by Kalla and Broockman, did an experiment early on in the election where canvassers left flyers attacking the Republican governor, Pat McCrory, for his signing of a "bathroom bill" restricting trans rights, which cost the state billions in business. The experiment concluded that the flyer was persuasive for black voters, but not white voters. So the campaign then targeted black family households

9. What is the problem with campaign efforts to get new voters registered ?

Voter registration is costly, as seen in an experiment by Temple's Nickerson, which found that voter registration efforts cost about $60 per vote for campaigns running them, far more than turnout efforts.