Blog 2.4

1. How many total Republicans in Congress have already announced that they will not run for reelection in 2018?
14 republicans have said they will not be running for reelection

2. How many total Democrats in Congress have already announced that they will not run for reelection in 2018?
Only two Democratic House members are retiring and not running for another office.

3. What is so unique about the discrepancy between these two groups?
The discrepancy in retirements between the two parties suggests that many Republicans fear a backlash against their party due to President Donald Trump’s poor approval rating.

4. What factors do the authors of the article suggest are behind these decisions not to run for reelection?
They can be old and are just retiring. They could also be scared of a challenging election. They could also not want to participate when the party is soon going to be in the minority.

5.  Why might the elections for those in "safe red districts" be more difficult than in recent elections?
Several retirees are in safe red districts and face little danger. A few have explained their decision with term limits for committee or subcommittee chairmanships they currently hold.

6. Why does the large number of incumbents retiring make it easier for Democrats to gain seats in the House than they otherwise would?
Because of something political scientists have dubbed the “incumbency advantage.” A wealth of US historical evidence shows that incumbent politicians do better in elections than non incumbents do. They’re more likely to win, and open seats are more likely to flip to the other party than are seats where an incumbent is running again are.

7. Why might this same thing help Democrats recruit better candidates?
It’s likely to help Democratic recruiting too, as potentially strong candidates are often more willing to run in an open-seat contest than to take on an incumbent.

8. About how much does FairVote say that incumbents are helped just by being incumbents in a normal election year?
FairVote finds the incumbency advantage has recently been somewhere between 3 percent and 7 percent.

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