Blog 4.1 - Alec Mueller
1. Why was it strange for the Democratic candidate to win in the Pennsylvania district?
One reason that the results are especially scary for Republicans — Democrat Conor Lamb is the apparent winner in a district that President Trump won by 20 percentage points — is because it came on reasonably high turnout, the sort of turnout one might expect in this year’s midterms.
2. On the chart, what is "Democratic swing"?
Democratic swing is the difference between the special election result and the district’s partisan lean. Partisan lean is the average difference between how the constituency voted and how the country voted overall in the last two presidential elections.
3. Which special elections so far have had the largest Democratic swing?
Alabama U.S. Senate election, Kansas 4th election, and the Pennsylvania 18th election
4. How is the generic ballot polling different from the results to far in these special elections?
Those special election results consist of actual people voting, whereas generic ballot polls are mostly conducted among registered voters — or sometimes all adults.
5. What is the difference in the Republican and Democratic levels of interest in the mid term elections?
Democrats appear to have an enthusiasm advantage — 60 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Clinton voters say they have a high degree of interest in the 2018 midterms. Fifty-four percent of Republicans and 37 percent of independents say the same. Young people, however, lag: Only 37 percent of registered voters ages 18-34 say they’re excited about the 2018 vote.
6. What steps had Republicans taken to try to defeat Connor Lamb in the Pennsylvania district?
Republicans dumped millions of dollars to hold Pennsylvania’s 18th District in a special election on Tuesday between Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone.
7. What has happened to President Trump's approval ratings this year?
President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 43 percent among all Americans, four points higher than where it was in January. FiveThirtyEight’s average of presidential approval polls finds that 40.2 percent of Americans think Trump is doing a good job as president. On January 1, he was at 37.9 percent on average.
8. What do you think that indicates about voters' attitudes towards Republicans?
They may be getting used to Trump, but they still want the republicans out of Congress.
One reason that the results are especially scary for Republicans — Democrat Conor Lamb is the apparent winner in a district that President Trump won by 20 percentage points — is because it came on reasonably high turnout, the sort of turnout one might expect in this year’s midterms.
2. On the chart, what is "Democratic swing"?
Democratic swing is the difference between the special election result and the district’s partisan lean. Partisan lean is the average difference between how the constituency voted and how the country voted overall in the last two presidential elections.
3. Which special elections so far have had the largest Democratic swing?
Alabama U.S. Senate election, Kansas 4th election, and the Pennsylvania 18th election
4. How is the generic ballot polling different from the results to far in these special elections?
Those special election results consist of actual people voting, whereas generic ballot polls are mostly conducted among registered voters — or sometimes all adults.
5. What is the difference in the Republican and Democratic levels of interest in the mid term elections?
Democrats appear to have an enthusiasm advantage — 60 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Clinton voters say they have a high degree of interest in the 2018 midterms. Fifty-four percent of Republicans and 37 percent of independents say the same. Young people, however, lag: Only 37 percent of registered voters ages 18-34 say they’re excited about the 2018 vote.
6. What steps had Republicans taken to try to defeat Connor Lamb in the Pennsylvania district?
Republicans dumped millions of dollars to hold Pennsylvania’s 18th District in a special election on Tuesday between Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone.
7. What has happened to President Trump's approval ratings this year?
President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 43 percent among all Americans, four points higher than where it was in January. FiveThirtyEight’s average of presidential approval polls finds that 40.2 percent of Americans think Trump is doing a good job as president. On January 1, he was at 37.9 percent on average.
8. What do you think that indicates about voters' attitudes towards Republicans?
They may be getting used to Trump, but they still want the republicans out of Congress.
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